Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -1100 SJSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -15.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -13.6 (-11.6) | 126.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -12.5 (-10.5) | 127.0 (+9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -12.9 (-10.9) | 127.3 (+8.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -13.6 (-11.6) | 126.2 (+9.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#67) | -7.5 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#90) | -0.76 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#82) | -0.90 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#123) | 0.440 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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