Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -10.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.1 (+13.9) | 135.5 (+8.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.2 (+13.8) | 137.9 (+6.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.3 (+13.7) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -8.1 (+13.9) | 137.2 (+6.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#147) | -9.7 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#115) | -1.46 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#109) | -1.63 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#68) | 0.439 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.