Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -230 FAIR +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -4.0 (+10.0) | 127.0 (+13.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -3.9 (+10.1) | 127.5 (+12.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.0 (+10.0) | 127.9 (+12.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -3.4 (+10.6) | 127.9 (+12.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | FAIR 74 – 55 SPU |
| Feb 15, 2026 | SPU 83 – 74 FAIR |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SPU 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SPU 65 – 52 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | SPU 68 – 63 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | -2.1 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#149) | -0.65 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#150) | -0.84 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#96) | 0.472 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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