Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -2.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.4 (+4.4) | 140.5 (-2.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.8 (+2.8) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.2 (+3.2) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -0.7 (+2.7) | 141.8 (-3.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | AKR 73 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2026 | AKR 99 – 85 BUF |
| Jan 20, 2026 | AKR 82 – 63 BUF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | AKR 88 – 70 BUF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | AKR 90 – 58 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#156) | 3.5 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#142) | 0.52 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#142) | 0.60 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#120) | 0.546 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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