Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -260 LOU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +1 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -5.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.3 (-3.3) | 123.8 (-22.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -4.6 (-3.6) | 128.3 (-27.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.4 (-3.4) | 128.2 (-27.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -4.0 (-3.0) | 125.7 (-24.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#81) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | 0.43 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | 0.57 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#93) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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