Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -7.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.3 (-7.3) | 136.1 (-18.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.3 (-8.3) | 136.7 (-18.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.0 (-8.0) | 136.6 (-18.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -6.1 (-8.1) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#206) | -9.4 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#227) | -1.78 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#236) | -2.14 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#191) | 0.442 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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