Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -200 DEP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -5.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -7.1 (+11.9) | 157.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.7 (+13.3) | 159.4 (+5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.9 (+13.1) | 160.1 (+4.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -5.4 (+13.6) | 158.6 (+6.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SJU 68 – 56 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2025 | SJU 79 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SJU 82 – 58 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2024 | SJU 89 – 61 DEP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | SJU 104 – 77 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#54) | 6.6 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#66) | 1.27 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#48) | 1.72 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#139) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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