Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -6.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -5.0 (-3.0) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -6.8 (-4.8) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -6.2 (-4.2) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -6.1 (-4.1) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIA 76 – 54 BC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | MIA 74 – 68 BC |
| Jan 1, 2025 | BC 78 – 68 MIA |
| Mar 12, 2024 | BC 81 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | BC 67 – 57 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 10-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#65) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#46) | 0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#43) | 0.27 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#54) | 0.465 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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