Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -1.0 Push |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | ALCN -115 PV -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -2.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.3 (-0.3) | 141.4 (-14.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -3.0 (-2.0) | 143.4 (-16.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -3.1 (-2.1) | 143.4 (-16.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -3.1 (-2.1) | 142.4 (-15.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 9-13 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#264) | -8.1 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#235) | -1.85 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#246) | -2.04 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.453 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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