Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -8.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.8 (-2.8) | 134.6 (-8.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -8.3 (-4.3) | 136.8 (-10.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -7.6 (-3.6) | 137.2 (-11.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -7.4 (-3.4) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#37) | 2.5 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#4) | 1.22 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#11) | 1.55 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#6) | 0.505 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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