Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +22 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -3.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.9 (-19.1) | 135.2 (-11.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.4 (-19.6) | 137.4 (-13.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.1 (-19.9) | 138.5 (-14.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.8 (-19.2) | 138.2 (-14.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SC 97 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSST 65 – 60 SC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MSST 85 – 50 SC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SC 93 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SC 68 – 62 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#94) | 9.9 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#63) | 1.41 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#80) | 1.71 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#64) | 0.543 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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