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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–12 on winners spread MAE 9.6 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Omaha @ Kansas	+10.0	143.6	83%	50–95	✓
Nebraska @ Creighton	+12.8	145.3	84%	74–98	✓
Villanova @ Georgetown	-1.6	142.9	43%	76–63	✓
George Washington @ Delaware	+3.6	145.4	67%	65–68	✓
Iona @ Fairfield	-2.9	146.0	37%	70–42	✓
Georgia Southern @ Davidson	+6.6	141.3	70%	45–77	✓
Marist @ Canisius	—	—	—	72–81	—
South Carolina State @ Charleston	+10.5	138.6	85%	63–90	✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois	+7.6	147.9	78%	66–70	✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's	+8.3	131.3	82%	54–70	✓
Milwaukee @ Kansas State	—	—	—	75–76	—
Iowa State @ Iowa	+19.2	153.4	90%	77–105	✓
Nevada @ Grand Canyon	+5.8	131.7	72%	77–87	✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State	+2.0	129.5	59%	67–74	✓
Marquette @ UCLA	+9.2	144.7	80%	60–69	✓
San José State @ Saint Mary's	—	—	—	61–96	—
Florida @ Florida State	+1.6	142.2	47%	71–83	✓
Wofford @ South Florida	-3.6	141.4	35%	56–58	✗
Tennessee State @ IU Indianapolis	—	—	—	66–69	—
Florida Gulf Coast @ Miami	+14.3	130.3	87%	66–62	✗
Notre Dame @ Kentucky	+4.5	139.3	68%	64–63	✗
Kansas City @ Toledo	+14.0	139.4	87%	57–64	✓
Cincinnati @ Tennessee	+8.0	130.1	76%	56–65	✓
Syracuse @ Boston College	-2.1	145.6	41%	101–63	✓
Stony Brook @ Bryant	+18.2	157.6	90%	72–81	✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina	+14.3	147.3	88%	67–73	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas Tech	+16.8	130.4	87%	57–77	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Western Michigan	+4.7	140.3	65%	67–57	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulane	+16.1	136.8	90%	56–67	✓
La Salle @ Drexel	+10.8	131.5	82%	58–48	✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville	+0.4	146.5	51%	67–80	✓
Texas A&M @ TCU	-3.2	133.6	34%	55–73	✗
South Alabama @ Southern Miss	+1.0	132.2	47%	76–75	✗
Mississippi State @ Dayton	-2.3	128.7	41%	82–85	✗
Utah Tech @ Denver	-1.3	146.0	43%	73–70	✓
Oklahoma State @ Wichita State	-0.0	145.4	40%	67–64	✓
Idaho @ Cal State Bakersfield	+3.5	131.5	61%	66–76	✓
Western Carolina @ North Carolina A&T	-4.7	153.0	32%	104–98	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Pittsburgh	+6.0	153.4	72%	50–67	✓
Wyoming @ Utah Valley	-3.4	145.8	36%	93–88	✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate	-7.0	148.6	24%	95–77	✓
UAB @ East Tennessee State	-4.6	131.6	31%	65–61	✓
Valparaiso @ Central Michigan	+3.4	145.8	64%	79–84	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount	+4.1	138.3	62%	76–81	✓
Old Dominion @ VCU	+8.1	145.0	75%	54–77	✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois	+9.8	141.9	82%	88–92	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Ole Miss	+12.7	142.7	83%	58–78	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UL Monroe	+3.1	141.2	64%	55–66	✓
Florida A&M @ Oklahoma	+12.1	152.1	85%	54–85	✓
Florida International @ North Florida	-5.2	148.3	29%	77–80	✗
Memphis @ Auburn	-7.7	142.9	23%	71–74	✗
UTEP @ Arizona	+15.9	143.4	87%	61–69	✓
Rider @ Manhattan	-5.5	144.1	32%	77–87	✗
Utah @ BYU	+4.8	142.3	67%	64–82	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	-0.7	131.6	47%	52–53	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.