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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Greensboro
@
Coppin State
|
-1.0 | 141.2 | 43% | 80–86 | ✗ |
Troy
@
North Alabama
|
— | — | — | 62–57 | — |
Jackson State
@
Ole Miss
|
— | — | — | 45–80 | — |
Portland
@
Oregon State
|
+8.1 | 145.7 | 78% | 87–86 | ✗ |
Kansas City
@
Minnesota
|
+14.6 | 140.2 | 86% | 61–90 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Northern Arizona
|
-8.4 | 138.6 | 25% | 74–50 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Western Kentucky
|
— | — | — | 84–86 | — |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+1.0 | 137.7 | 49% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
San Francisco
|
+17.1 | 149.0 | 89% | 62–107 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
South Dakota State
|
+6.6 | 136.6 | 78% | 75–77 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Arizona State
|
+5.5 | 141.9 | 69% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Northeastern
@
Massachusetts
|
— | — | — | 79–94 | — |
North Texas
@
West Virginia
|
+7.8 | 144.7 | 77% | 50–62 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Seton Hall
|
+11.1 | 157.1 | 86% | 68–77 | ✓ |
App State
@
Charlotte
|
+3.8 | 132.2 | 60% | 61–57 | ✗ |
Rider
@
Manhattan
|
— | — | — | 82–64 | — |
South Dakota State
@
North Dakota
|
-5.6 | 148.1 | 25% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.