North Dakota
Fighting Hawks
62
–
74
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Dakota Showcase
South Dakota State
Jackrabbits
Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | UND +425 SDST -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -8.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.6 (-6.4) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.3 (-7.7) | 143.9 (-7.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.0 (-6.0) | 147.6 (-11.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -6.1 (-5.9) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-17 | 16-7 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-3 |
| Home | 5-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#185) | 5.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#212) | 1.43 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#225) | 1.41 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#224) | 0.645 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 45.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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