Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -25.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +24 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -15.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -8.4 (-15.6) | 138.6 (-14.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -10.6 (-13.4) | 133.9 (-9.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -11.7 (-12.3) | 138.0 (-14.0) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 14-8 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-4 |
| Home | 1-7 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#294) | 8.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#186) | 1.04 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#191) | 1.09 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#146) | 0.525 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 24.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 80.2% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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