Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +2000 UNCG -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COPP +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | COPP -1.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COPP -0.4 (+5.6) | 144.8 (+21.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.0 (+7.0) | 141.2 (+24.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.2 (+6.2) | 141.9 (+24.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COPP -0.9 (+5.1) | 146.7 (+19.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2021 | UNCG 55 – 48 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#263) | -3.0 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#282) | 0.21 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#281) | 0.56 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.295 (#291) | 0.510 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.3% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.0% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
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