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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abilene Christian
@
Texas Tech
|
+8.7 | 132.1 | 74% | 44–51 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Arizona
|
+13.2 | 133.5 | 85% | 60–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
VCU
|
+17.4 | 138.0 | 90% | 59–95 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Hofstra
|
+5.7 | 138.4 | 70% | 67–72 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Valparaiso
|
+5.1 | 134.0 | 69% | 58–80 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Charleston
|
-7.2 | 138.6 | 23% | 84–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Evansville
|
+1.0 | 142.8 | 55% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Arkansas State
|
+12.0 | 140.9 | 85% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
UL Monroe
|
+10.8 | 141.5 | 85% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Bellarmine
|
+1.1 | 138.3 | 46% | 77–68 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Florida State
|
+1.9 | 140.4 | 52% | 67–69 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Nebraska
|
+10.7 | 158.9 | 80% | 75–64 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+9.6 | 140.9 | 82% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Baylor
|
+23.3 | 159.6 | 90% | 52–83 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Texas
|
+15.2 | 134.6 | 88% | 53–74 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Arkansas
|
+25.9 | 155.2 | 91% | 44–79 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Utah Valley
|
-1.1 | 148.7 | 47% | 81–71 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Tulane
|
+7.3 | 131.2 | 74% | 38–58 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Lipscomb
|
+3.4 | 146.3 | 64% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Xavier
|
+6.8 | 156.5 | 72% | 77–99 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Missouri
|
+13.5 | 145.0 | 86% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Cal Poly
|
-5.6 | 133.4 | 26% | 76–69 | ✓ |
California
@
Pepperdine
|
+8.3 | 139.3 | 79% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Washington State
|
+7.4 | 128.7 | 76% | 58–61 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
UCLA
|
— | — | — | 56–83 | — |
Boise State
@
BYU
|
+1.6 | 135.1 | 55% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Denver
@
Wyoming
|
+16.5 | 149.1 | 89% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Northwestern
|
+15.6 | 156.0 | 88% | 71–70 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Oregon
|
+14.6 | 144.5 | 88% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Washington
|
-1.5 | 131.0 | 43% | 41–73 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Buffalo
|
— | — | — | 64–81 | — |
LSU New Orleans
@
Jacksonville
|
+10.4 | 141.2 | 83% | 70–77 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
East Carolina
|
+15.9 | 142.1 | 88% | 67–73 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
South Dakota
|
-2.1 | 139.2 | 41% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.