Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -700 SIUE +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -8.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -5.1 (+16.9) | 134.0 (+4.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -5.5 (+16.5) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.7 (+16.3) | 135.3 (+2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -5.2 (+16.8) | 134.5 (+3.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 2-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#143) | -1.8 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#231) | -1.65 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#227) | -2.08 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.355 (#263) | 0.436 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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