Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -2800 TXST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -19.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -12.1 (+8.9) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -15.2 (+5.8) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -17.6 (+3.4) | 133.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -17.0 (+4.0) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2023 | TEX 77 – 58 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#17) | -0.2 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#28) | 0.11 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#30) | -0.73 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#18) | 0.449 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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