Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | TTU -1700 ACU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +7 | 95 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -12.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -8.7 (-1.7) | 132.1 (-37.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -8.6 (-1.6) | 131.4 (-36.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -8.8 (-1.8) | 135.2 (-40.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -8.4 (-1.4) | 129.2 (-34.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 13-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.2 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#9) | 9.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#110) | 2.77 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#108) | 4.19 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#169) | 0.619 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 46.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.0% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.4% | 32.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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