Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | COFC +230 MRSH -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -8.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -7.2 (-4.8) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -8.4 (-3.6) | 143.9 (+12.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -9.0 (-3.0) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#259) | 7.4 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#277) | 2.24 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.55 (#283) | 3.65 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.338 (#275) | 0.692 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 23.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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