Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -7.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | JAX -280 NOLA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -13.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -10.4 (-3.4) | 141.2 (+5.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -8.6 (-1.6) | 138.2 (+8.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -10.2 (-3.2) | 141.6 (+5.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -10.2 (-3.2) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#225) | -11.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#180) | -2.05 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#167) | -2.55 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#28) | 0.442 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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