Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +35 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -29.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -23.4 (+11.6) | 148.9 (-25.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -25.9 (+9.1) | 155.2 (-32.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -30.6 (+4.4) | 153.4 (-30.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -34.5 (+0.5) | 151.6 (-28.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 4, 2025 | ARK 109 – 77 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#4) | -4.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#77) | -1.62 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#87) | -2.29 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#123) | 0.352 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 48.8 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.5% | 63.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.