Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | VCU -4500 NCAT +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +36 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -24.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -17.4 (+18.6) | 138.0 (+16.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -16.2 (+19.8) | 141.5 (+12.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -19.8 (+16.2) | 141.0 (+13.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -19.7 (+16.3) | 137.2 (+16.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#40) | -8.5 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#51) | -1.35 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#28) | -1.93 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#54) | 0.356 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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