Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | XAV +135 OU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -6.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -6.8 (+15.2) | 156.5 (+19.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.4 (+17.6) | 158.5 (+17.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -8.1 (+13.9) | 157.4 (+18.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.9 (+14.1) | 156.1 (+19.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-8 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 9-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#44) | 9.5 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#8) | 2.40 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.16 (#12) | 3.00 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#29) | 0.593 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 44.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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