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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–7 on winners spread MAE 10.5 36 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Northern Kentucky @ Dayton	+3.6	136.0	62%	60–66	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	-7.3	136.2	24%	79–70	✓
Rider @ St. John's	+14.0	148.5	88%	79–82	✓
Kent State @ Detroit Mercy	+3.6	144.3	64%	80–66	✗
Campbell @ Jacksonville	—	—	—	80–78	—
Saint Francis @ Mount St. Mary's	+6.7	131.6	78%	57–75	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+2.9	149.4	65%	94–87	✗
Bryant @ St. Francis Brooklyn	—	—	—	101–82	—
Montana @ Georgia	+11.0	146.6	84%	50–63	✓
Coppin State @ Georgetown	+5.9	140.9	70%	48–80	✓
Boston College @ Minnesota	+7.6	148.8	80%	80–85	✓
North Carolina @ Iowa	+7.6	150.9	72%	80–93	✓
Ohio State @ Notre Dame	+0.5	142.0	48%	90–85	✗
Tennessee State @ Belmont	—	—	—	64–79	—
Central Arkansas @ Saint Louis	+21.8	156.2	91%	65–88	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Memphis	+24.3	158.6	91%	57–94	✓
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma State	+16.0	152.0	89%	78–83	✓
Austin Peay @ Murray State	-0.0	143.7	51%	57–87	✗
Penn State @ Virginia Tech	+10.8	150.9	83%	75–55	✗
Jackson State @ Mississippi State	—	—	—	59–82	—
Green Bay @ Marquette	+21.5	145.8	91%	68–82	✓
Illinois @ Duke	-5.2	147.8	31%	83–68	✓
Syracuse @ Rutgers	+2.1	144.8	55%	69–79	✓
UC Irvine @ USC	+16.3	145.7	88%	56–91	✓
UTEP @ Saint Mary's	—	—	—	61–73	—
LSU New Orleans @ Campbell	—	—	—	70–79	—
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago	—	—	—	51–88	—
Bryant @ St. Francis Brooklyn	—	—	—	91–93	—
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+3.7	151.5	65%	71–79	✓
Rhode Island @ Wisconsin	+6.2	141.6	70%	62–73	✓
Furman @ Cincinnati	-2.9	139.4	36%	73–78	✗
Maryland @ Clemson	+1.9	130.3	53%	51–67	✓
Providence @ TCU	+7.0	132.5	76%	79–70	✗
Western Illinois @ Miami (OH)	+9.3	139.8	80%	57–67	✓
Northern Iowa @ Richmond	+16.4	154.4	88%	68–78	✓
Toledo @ Michigan	+5.6	145.3	71%	71–91	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.