Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
| Money | NIU +255 BALL -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -6.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -7.3 (-1.7) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -8.1 (-0.9) | 134.4 (+14.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -8.8 (-0.2) | 137.4 (+11.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -7.4 (-1.6) | 137.0 (+12.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-16 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 8-9 |
| Home | 2-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -15.9 (#290) | -2.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#296) | 0.42 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.57 (#296) | 0.73 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.272 (#283) | 0.604 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 24.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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