Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -170 FUR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -6.6 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.9 (+7.9) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -2.3 (+7.3) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -2.3 (+7.3) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.8 (+7.8) | 139.0 (+12.0) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 10-5 |
| Home | 5-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#177) | 11.6 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#180) | 1.54 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#178) | 2.29 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#122) | 0.464 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 20.9% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 63.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 24.9% |
| DRB% | 96.1% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.0% | 8.5% |
Game Analysis
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