Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | IOWA -190 UNC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +13 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -11.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -7.6 (+5.4) | 150.9 (+22.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -5.2 (+7.8) | 152.3 (+20.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -7.9 (+5.1) | 152.9 (+20.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -7.4 (+5.6) | 147.4 (+25.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#11) | 10.5 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#77) | 1.36 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#77) | 2.57 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#179) | 0.559 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 17.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.43 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 44.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.0% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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