Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | DAY -900 NKU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.6 (+2.4) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.3 (+4.7) | 130.7 (-4.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.7 (+3.3) | 133.2 (-7.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.4 (+2.6) | 135.7 (-9.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#181) | -1.8 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#178) | 0.94 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#175) | 1.11 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#124) | 0.587 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 26.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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