Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -700 MONT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -12.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-37.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -11.0 (+2.0) | 146.6 (-33.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -8.9 (+4.1) | 141.2 (-28.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -12.0 (+1.0) | 146.5 (-33.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -12.0 (+1.0) | 147.4 (-34.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#44) | 3.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#63) | -1.35 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#63) | -1.14 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#27) | 0.260 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 40.6% |
Game Analysis
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