Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -45.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +37 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -42.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -24.3 (+12.7) | 158.6 (-7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -22.9 (+14.1) | 157.3 (-6.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -37.5 (-0.5) | 150.3 (+0.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -34.5 (+2.5) | 154.9 (-3.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 2-13 |
| Home | 10-1 | 1-5 |
| Away | 4-3 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 87.4 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#63) | -28.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#111) | -1.75 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#76) | -2.67 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#185) | 0.383 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 15.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 7.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 65.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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