Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -1100 TOL +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -4.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -5.6 (+14.4) | 145.3 (+16.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -3.3 (+16.7) | 145.6 (+16.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -5.4 (+14.6) | 147.3 (+14.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.8 (+14.2) | 146.3 (+15.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2023 | MICH 90 – 80 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 15-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#92) | 6.3 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#26) | -0.14 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#26) | -0.64 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.751 (#12) | 0.456 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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