Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -250 TOL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +10 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -6.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.2 (+3.8) | 158.9 (+11.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -6.7 (+3.3) | 155.1 (+14.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.3 (+3.7) | 158.9 (+11.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -6.5 (+3.5) | 159.1 (+10.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2020 | MICH 91 – 71 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#50) | 6.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#66) | 1.34 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#48) | 1.40 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#94) | 0.567 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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