Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -145 SFPA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -12.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.7 (+11.3) | 131.6 (+0.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.7 (+12.3) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.6 (+11.4) | 130.3 (+1.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -7.0 (+11.0) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | MSM 74 – 66 SFPA |
| Nov 17, 2024 | MSM 66 – 58 SFPA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | MSM 72 – 65 SFPA |
| Feb 12, 2022 | MSM 54 – 52 SFPA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MSM 71 – 54 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#93) | -2.5 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#64) | -0.52 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#47) | -0.63 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#50) | 0.530 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.