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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–3 on winners
spread MAE 6.6
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Washington
@
Oregon
|
+10.3 | 149.7 | 81% | 52–69 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
North Florida
|
+2.0 | 132.6 | 53% | 79–77 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Norfolk State
|
+2.6 | 143.6 | 55% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+17.3 | 146.7 | 90% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+2.6 | 131.5 | 48% | 80–70 | ✗ |
Lipscomb
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+5.8 | 141.9 | 71% | 77–82 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
— | — | — | 58–69 | — |
Northern Arizona
@
Arizona
|
— | — | — | 53–96 | — |
Morgan State
@
Iona
|
+9.8 | 141.9 | 82% | 83–72 | ✗ |
Delaware
@
UMBC
|
— | — | — | 61–76 | — |
Creighton
@
Kansas
|
+0.8 | 153.0 | 48% | 72–73 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Seton Hall
|
— | — | — | 45–78 | — |
Stetson
@
South Florida
|
+11.3 | 136.2 | 86% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Miami
|
+1.8 | 144.4 | 55% | 54–58 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Tennessee
|
— | — | — | 47–56 | — |
North Carolina A&T
@
Longwood
|
+9.3 | 142.9 | 83% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Utah
|
+15.6 | 134.8 | 88% | 59–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.