Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | ORE -1200 EWU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +17 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -13.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -10.3 (+6.7) | 149.7 (-28.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -9.7 (+7.3) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -12.3 (+4.7) | 148.5 (-27.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -11.6 (+5.4) | 150.5 (-29.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-7 | 16-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#44) | 1.9 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#43) | -0.71 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#25) | -0.76 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#29) | 0.535 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 13.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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