Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -0.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -2.6 (+9.4) | 143.6 (-3.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -2.8 (+9.2) | 147.2 (-7.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -4.5 (+7.5) | 144.4 (-4.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2025 | NORF 62 – 60 HAMP |
| Nov 17, 2024 | NORF 67 – 58 HAMP |
| Nov 14, 2023 | NORF 75 – 68 HAMP |
| Feb 4, 2023 | NORF 83 – 71 HAMP |
| Dec 17, 2022 | NORF 78 – 66 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#152) | 6.1 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#125) | 1.81 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#130) | 2.51 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#76) | 0.514 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 45.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 15.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 85.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 36.2% |
Game Analysis
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