Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +2 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UNF -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNF -2.0 (-4.0) | 137.8 (+18.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNF -2.0 (-4.0) | 132.6 (+23.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -3.0 (-5.0) | 130.6 (+25.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNF -1.8 (-3.8) | 131.2 (+24.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2021 | FAU 76 – 41 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#251) | -3.0 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#257) | -2.06 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#245) | -3.06 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#247) | 0.179 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 27.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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