Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | USF -1300 STET +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | USF -17.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -13.5 (-2.5) | 136.7 (-1.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -12.1 (-1.1) | 136.7 (-1.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -11.3 (-0.3) | 136.2 (-1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -11.8 (-0.8) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | USF 74 – 72 STET |
| Nov 15, 2022 | STET 68 – 67 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#182) | -12.3 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#177) | -0.65 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#165) | -0.94 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#85) | 0.556 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 30.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 36.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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