Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | USF -333 STET +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -3.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STET -0.1 (-0.9) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.4 (-3.4) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.8 (-1.8) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | USF 74 – 72 STET |
| Dec 8, 2020 | USF 73 – 62 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-9 | 9-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#214) | 6.3 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#334) | 1.64 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#328) | 2.31 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#106) | 0.250 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 18.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.45 | 2.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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