Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | MARQ -4500 GB +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -26.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -21.5 (-7.5) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -20.2 (-6.2) | 146.7 (+3.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -25.2 (-11.2) | 147.3 (+2.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -24.2 (-10.2) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 8-17 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#76) | -14.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#127) | -2.95 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#130) | -4.05 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#91) | 0.384 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 40.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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