Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -160 ILL +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +15 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -10.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -6.9 (-8.1) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -5.9 (-9.1) | 150.7 (+0.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.0 (-9.0) | 150.0 (+1.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.2 (-9.8) | 147.8 (+3.2) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2025 | DUKE 110 – 67 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#116) | 19.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#159) | 0.94 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#155) | 1.24 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#110) | 0.561 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 53.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 45.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 49.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 47.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 84.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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