Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | BYU -165 BOIS +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -2.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -1.6 (-5.6) | 135.1 (+8.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -0.4 (-4.4) | 137.4 (+6.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -0.5 (-4.5) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -1.6 (-5.6) | 136.6 (+7.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-7 | 19-9 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#117) | 10.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#45) | 0.61 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#45) | 1.02 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#60) | 0.557 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 21.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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