Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -2000 CSUB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +25 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -12.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -13.2 (+11.8) | 133.5 (+11.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -16.7 (+8.3) | 135.7 (+9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -15.4 (+9.6) | 135.0 (+10.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#67) | 0.1 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#72) | -0.48 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#78) | -0.73 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#164) | 0.583 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 33.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 30.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 43.1% |
Game Analysis
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