Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -7000 SFA +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +31 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -34.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-28.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -23.3 (+7.7) | 159.6 (-24.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -32.3 (-1.3) | 152.9 (-17.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -31.3 (-0.3) | 158.9 (-23.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 12-3 |
| Home | 11-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-1 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | W6 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#1) | -5.7 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#7) | 0.35 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#9) | 0.22 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.744 (#11) | 0.417 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 56.4% |
| 3PT% | 47.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 46.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 40.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 62.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 33.4% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 44.4% |
Game Analysis
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