Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | PEPP -180 CAL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -12.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -8.3 (+3.7) | 139.3 (-3.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -7.7 (+4.3) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -8.6 (+3.4) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -8.4 (+3.6) | 140.9 (-4.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#103) | -3.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#171) | -1.18 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#165) | -1.49 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#126) | 0.409 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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