Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -280 USM +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +20 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -7.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -7.8 (+12.2) | 125.6 (-29.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -9.6 (+10.4) | 127.2 (-31.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -7.3 (+12.7) | 131.2 (-35.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2024 | TULN 86 – 58 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#240) | -6.5 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#106) | -1.14 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#119) | -1.82 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#182) | 0.417 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 30.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 21.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 33.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 38.0% |
Game Analysis
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