Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -240 USM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +28 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -6.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -5.8 (+22.2) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -4.4 (+23.6) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -4.6 (+23.4) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -5.5 (+22.5) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2020 | TULN 58 – 38 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#226) | -5.4 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#332) | -0.66 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#316) | -1.17 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#342) | 0.438 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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