Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | ECU -1400 UNF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -20.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -15.9 (-9.9) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -14.2 (-8.2) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -17.0 (-11.0) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -16.0 (-10.0) | 141.7 (-1.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 6-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-3 |
| Away | 1-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#75) | -8.6 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#40) | -3.26 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#52) | -4.48 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#62) | 0.312 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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